Safe-have bids retained momentum


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Daily News  – 27 March

By: Andria Pichidi

USD losses widen further as JPY gains,
Treasuries remain in rally mode, Stocks mixed but mainly positive –
JPN225 +4.3%,
USA500 closed above 2600,
USA100 closed above 20-day SMA,
UK100 drifted below 5000,
GER30 closed above 10K.

Main Stocks are currently heading southwards today

Pessimist headlines:
JP Morgan for the US: “We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March” – Unemployment to reach 8.5%
EU leaders fail to agree on next steps to fight the virus (EU leaders disagreed over the size and the allocation of the funds, which amounted to €1,094 billion) – They have requested revival of plan and
Merkel – Impact of coronavirus likely to be bigger than financial crisis / ESM is enough
China Industrial Profits YTD for February has fallen the most on record – (38.3% down y/y)
The US sets new restrictions aimed at cutting off Huawei from one of its main suppliers of advanced semiconductors


USOIL – down over 7%, so far bottoming at $22.37 – Next Support $22.00-$22.20 – Demand concerns remain a driver, as countries continue to go on lockdown! – THE SAME TIME – Russia and Saudi Arabia production and supply continue, to fill up global storage capacity, which by some accounts is above 75%.
GOLD – Gold still having a good week 1626 – 4-day Resistance 1630-1642, S: 1605

JPY’s and Commodities’ (or related) gains continue as risk aversion is back!
YEN – below 109, S at 107.90, R at 109.45
AUD – up from S1 at 0.6035 and 0.6000, R at 0.6125
GBP – topped at 1.2300 – S1: 1.2050 and R: 1.2325 and 1.2500.
EUR – Topped 1.1086 (200-day SMA at 1.1080) -S:1.1000
CAD –rolled lower even as crude oil fell 7%. Its below PP at 1.4092 – S1 1.3925, R1 at 1.4208
CHF – benefits for a 6th day – S1 at 0.9570, R at 0.9670
NZD at 0.5945 – R at 0.6000

TODAY: US aid package is expected to be signed off, US Personal Spending/Income, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Biggest (FX) Mover – NZDJPY (-98%) – drifted from 65.45 to 64.47. It trades below PP while it failed to move above 20-day SMA for a 3rd consecutive day. Daily momentum indicators continue to negatively configure while intraday indicators are a mix. RSI (48) negative, MACD histogram at zero below its signal line suggesting a decrease of the positive bias, while Stochastics post bullish cross but remain lower. – H1 ATR 0.30.

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