Macro Events & News – 9 July 2019


By: Andria Pichidi

FX News Today

  • Stock markets remain cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony after jobs data reduced hopes of big rate cuts from the Fed.
  • Tech stocks were hit by a slump in Apple Inc. after a broker downgrade.
  • Topix and Nikkei pared early gains in the course of the session and are currently down -0.22% and up 0.06% respectively.
  • Central bank expectations remain a major force for stock market moves, amid lingering geopolitical trade tensions, which are far from over despite the restart of US-Sino talks.
  • European futures, as well as US futures, are down -0.3-0.4% with the Nasdaq underperforming.
  • In Europe, BTPs are currently outperforming, but Greek bonds, which rallied yesterday on the election result, are paring some of the gains.
  • Released overnight, UK BRC retail sales came in weaker than expected and fell back -1.6% m/m in the same store measure. Still, to come are Italian retail sales numbers and an I/L auction in Germany.
  • Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold in the USD 57-58 range, with the WTI future currently trading at USD 57.50.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

  •  retests again the 6-month low into EU open, at 1.2483. EURGBP remained buoyant, but markets still lacked the muster for a test of the recent six-month high at 0.8992. A 0.3% m/m contraction in the Halifax measure of UK house prices (released Friday) was the latest in a series of data disappointments out of the UK. As for Brexit, the news flow has remained quiet in terms of substantive developments. That will change as soon as the new prime minister, most likely no-deal-Brexit-if-necessary Boris Johnson, takes up the reigns (which will be later in the month). Cable has resistance at 1.2510-20. Next Support at 1.2420.
  • Silver
  • Despite the decline seen the last 2 days, Silver manages to be held above the 20- and 50-week SMA, sustaining more than 50% of the gains seen in June. Breaching the uptrend Support at 14.90 and also the small bounce up to 15.10 suggest that the corrective pressure is growing again. The RSI is sloping to the upside again but still remains below 50 in the daily chart, while MACD remains within the positive area following a bear cross last week.  The key level at $15.10 is now a Resistance whilst traction below the $14.90 would open $14.60 as the next Support. A break above Resistance could retest the $15.25-$15.35 area.

Main Macro Events Today

  • Fed Chair Powell Speech on Boston (USD, GMT 12:45)
  • JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00)
  •  JOLTS define Job Openings at all positions that have not to be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings are expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.

Support and Resistance levels

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