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FX Update – April 13, 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

The Dollar has ebbed and then recovered in holiday-thinned conditions. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex edged out a two-week low at 99.14 before recouping back above 99.50. EURUSD concurrently saw an eleven-day high at 1.0968 before retreating to the lower 1.0900s. Cable has printed a one-month peak at 1.2537 before correcting to the upper 1.2400s. USDCAD posted a high of 1.4001 after making a four-week low at 1.3923 at the opening of trade, which was concomitant with and early, but fleeting bid in oil prices, which have remained below Friday highs despite the OPEC++ group of producing nations confirming a 9.7 mln barrel per day crude output cut. Further large output cuts will be needed to match the level of demand destruction caused by the prevailing level of virus-containing measures being taken across the globe. Gold also held at its Thursday highs,  even testing $1695.00 earlier and bringing the March 9 flirtation with $1700, back into view again this week.

      

AUDUSD has held within the range seen on Friday. Elsewhere, the yen picked up a moderate safe-haven bid, which lifted the currency about 0.5% higher against both the dollar and euro. USDJPY saw an 11-day low at 107.79. Most of the main European stock markets are closed today, while S&P 500 futures were showing a decline of 1%, ahead of the New York session.

     

On the coronavirus front, there has been mixed news. Spain is readying to reopen parts of its economy, and Germany reported a third successive day of falling confirmed cases, though France announced it will continue with its lockdown for several more weeks and China on Sunday reported its highest rate of infections in five weeks (though this is only 108) and that it is increasing restrictions in northern regions bordering Russia. The US continues to report sharp rises in both confirmed cases and in the mortality rate, though there are signs that the curve is flattening in hotspots, such as New York state.


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