Gold analysis – 7 Oct 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

Duplicate story of Trade talk, Powell Speech, FOMC and EBC minutes!

Duplicate story of Trade talk, Powell Speech, FOMC and EBC minutes, are all that matter for Gold in the coming week. China is back after Holidays and preparing for trade talks, which will be held this week. Wednesday and Thursday, with FOMC minutes and ECB monetary policy, will be key events, as well as trade talks, which finally the situation must be clearer. These days when Mr. Trump is under the pressure of possible impeachment and needs any success to sell that to American as a strong and successful leader, there can be good opportunity to deal. Last week ended when the labor market generally was a bit negative, but not disappointing in the US. While NFP was missing 4K from the market expected the number, the unemployment number reached again at 3.5%. Even if the US average hourly earnings missed expectations and came in unchanged in September (surveys expected a 0.2% m/m gain), putting the unchanged number of hourly earnings with amazing 3.5% unemployment (0.2% improve) is positive generally for labor market, from my point of view and must help to USD in its way to raise and Gold, to lose. This week FOMC minutes will make it clearer especially about the next rate cut decision policy, will that happen or not? If so, for 0.25% or more? What we can see in the market and putting the data, next to what we saw as the act of the last meeting, the chance of cutting the rate in October is getting less.

Technical analysis:

$1497 was key level as well as 38.2% of Fibonacci, now with looking at the H4 chart, we can find out that level even more important, while EMA20, & 50 and 200, all are crossing each other at this level. EMA crossing strategy is starting a new bullish movement signal there, while RSI at 56-level is supporting the idea. The stochastic indicator also still moving on the positive side. Main key Resistance and Support levels, respectively are 1511. 1517, 1524, 1535 and 1497, 1492. 1484. 1478.

Pivot level: 1504.75

Resistance levels: 1513.80 / 1524.63

Support levels: 1493.93 / 1484.89

Today the expected trading range is between 1493.93 support and 1524.63 resistance.

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