Gold analysis – 3 Oct 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

ADP down, Fears back, Gold flies!

Volatility week continued with another amazing day, where we had $31 gaining record from yesterday’s low at $1474 up to $1515. ADP None-Farm employment data realized yesterday, fell to 135K, much lower than expectations, after two months raising in July and August. Assets and Futures closed at negative zone, DW30, -1.86%, S&P500 -1.79%, Nasdaq -1.56%, FTSE100, -3.23%, DAX, -2.76%, Nikkei 225, -2.12% and Shanghai -0.92% respectively lost the value. Fears of slowing down of global economic growth, even more than what market was expecting moved the market yesterday, especially after negative ADP of the USA, while we had negative ISM Manufacturing PMIs as well. Today ISM none-manufacturing PMI will be in the spotlight, on the day before NFP. It seems that the US economy spending very sensitive days with powerful trading of USD against major currencies and DXY above $98.70. For now and as long as the market does not have the confidence, Gold will keep its uptrend, holding above $1492

Technical analysis:

Yesterday’s uptrend move as we expecting after 50% of a Fibonacci level, passed the 38.2% of Fibo as well at $1497 with testing the $1505. While the Gold still trading above $1498, RSI moves above 50-level and confirming the more bulls at the H4 chart. Stochastic moves at the overbought area with the correction signal, while the EMA crossing strategy still did not confirm the bulls with supporting the bearish movement at this level. Generally, technical indicators have very mixed signals and cannot confirm any special direction.

Pivot point: 1494.42

Resistance levels: 1514.41 / 1525.00

Support levels: 1483.85 / 1463.85

Today the expected trading range is between 1483.85 support and 1514.41 resistance.

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