Gold analysis – 2 Oct 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

Resurrect of worries!

Gold felt to its 61.8% Fibonacci at $1460, started from $1402, where the latest rally started to its more than 6 years high at almost $1558 after easing the worries about Geopolitical worries, as well as positive news about Trade Talks. As I mentioned in Monday’s article about Gold, this week will be very volatility week for Gold, since we have many news and economic data which will affect on Gold, directly and deeply. The day before, after negative reading in the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI reports, which posted the lowest data in a decade, failing to 47.8 in September’s number compared to 50.4 of forecasted and 49.10 of the last month, Gold rebound to almost $1488. Manufacturing data can directly effect on Jobs, Retail sales data as well as consumer confidence and GDP, that’s why it was taking so seriously by investors in the market and could take the DXY down from its 17 month’s high at 99.28, to 98.28. For now, the market situation is not about to predict something, better to keep being updated with news and economic data in the next 3 trading days, including today’s data, ADP Nonfarm Employment’s data form the US.

Technical Analysis

After touching the 61.8% Fibonacci at $1460, in the rebound, Gold could pass the 50% level, however, was not able to catch the 38.2%. Currently trading around $1478, which is under, but so close to its 50% of Fibo at $1479. Crossing the 50% and trading above that can open the doors for the next level, 38.2% at $1497.78. However, on the flip side, breaking down the $1474 level can lead the trend to $1467 and $1460 as well, the doors for $1450. Technical indicators mostly supporting the bears at the moment, where RSI moves at 42-level and candles are way under EMA50 & 20. EMA crossing strategy also at the H4 chart, totally supports the bears, while EMA20, passed the EMA50 to the downside at $1508.

Pivot point: 1475.98

Resistance levels: 1492.92 / 1504.28

Support levels: 1464.62 / 1447.68

Today the expected trading range is between 1464.62 support and 1492.92 resistance.

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