Gold analysis – 2 Dec 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

What to wait for, in week ahead?

Gold had side movement last week, same as the week before that, with one difference, mostly traded under the lowest levels of its previous week, except the last day. Gold started a week with $1460.52 and ended that $1463.80. A positive outlook on the trade talks was handling the prices lower, however, raising the tensions in Hong Kong has been supported by the US, which angered Beijing and caused the pause on trade talks as well, even if both sides denying that. Many analysts believe that as they could not agree before Thanksgiving holidays, which has been estimated from both sides, cannot get into the point, before 2020 as well, especially when China wants a rollback of tariffs in ‘phase one’ trade deal with the US, as Chinese state media says (CNBC). However, as December 15 is the beginning for an additional 15% tariff on about $156 billion of Chinese products, it’s widely expected to have clearer idea about the fate of this none ending talks. In the week ahead, two interest rate decisions and NFP data and the changes in the US, ahead of upcoming election (12 Dec.) will be in focus for Gold price. Caixin Manufacturing PMI earlier today has been realized, much better than expected and it weighted on the Gold price to lose $4, in the Asian season.

Technical analysis:

Technical indicators have very mixed signals in the H4 chart. EMA crossing strategy still supports the bears, while Parabolic SAR returned to the positive side. RSI and Stochastic, both are in the natural zone, however, the market volume also still remains low.

Pivot point: 1461.76

Resistance levels: 1470.59 / 1475.34

Support levels: 1457.00 / 1448.18

Today the expected trading range is between 1448.18 support and 1475.34 resistance.

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