Gold analysis – 19 Sep 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

Gold after FED!

25bp rate cut for the second time in the year, as it was widely expected with signaling it can be one more rate cut before ending the year if needed to avoid the ongoing trade risk. The US stock market yesterday closed a bit higher, while overnight we had negative move as correction, however, the effect in the market was not that high, as FED had nothing especial in the Press conference after that, but what market was expecting. Very positive US house data also was very effective in the market changes, as it was another sign of a healthy economy. The USD index (DX), turned above 98, from its yesterday low of 97.75. Effect of these changes will be a bit positive move for Stock market and negatively for the yellow metal, but still, Geopolitical risks are alive after drone attack to Saudi Arabian refineries, which still remain as a brake for more falling the prices.

Technical analysis

In the H4 chart, technical indicators remain of more bearish, while candles and EMA crossing strategy both supporting the bulls. RSI moves under 50-level with the slight bearish signal at 46, while stochastic still at 40 level keeping its bearish signal and price moves between the lower and middle line of Bollinger bands. Checking the candles, the first candle right after bigger bearish candle, the Hummer candle there, signaling the return in the price, either as a correction or reversal back to bullish, while EMA crossing strategy also by crossing the EMA50 with EMA20, remains of a bullish move.

Pivot point: 1495.54

Resistance levels: 1508.05 / 1523.98

Support levels: 1479.61 / 1467.10

The expected trading range for today is between 1479.10 support and 1508.05 resistance.

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