Gold analysis – 18 Nov 2019

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By: Ahura Chalki

Geopolitical concerns & Trade War!

Gold started a new week with green candles following ongoing geopolitical concerns in Hongkong and newly started protest rallies in Iran, right after that “Chinese media, on Friday fleshed out arguments that Chinese demand for U.S. farm products is nowhere near the level of purchases that Washington is insisting on in order to seal a partial ‘phase-1’ deal”(Investing.com). However later yellow metal started its downtrend and currently trading around $1465. Since trade deal, “Phase-One” still facing with doubts, in this week, in line with ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, EU Gross Domestic Product and FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, still, we have to take the trade talks under consideration while protest activities in Hong Kong and Iran also can make changes, depends on what will be happen in next two days. On the other hand, new records on stock markets, while must be negative for Precious Metals price, however, since these new records happenings along with trade concerns in all over the globe, fears of failing in the markets, can add the value on safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis:

Technical indicators in both H1 and H4 charts, mostly supporting the bears, while RSI moves in the natural zone. Parabolic SAR in both charts forming its dots way above candles m signaling of more bearish at the moment. In both charts, the EMA crossing strategy also still supporting the bears. 100-D EMa at 1463 is key support level, while 50-D EMA at 1483 is key resistance, which breaches any of these levels and stable trading under them can open the doors for next deeper or higher moves.

Pivot point: 1466.90

Resistance levels: 1471.45 / 1475.93

Support levels: 1462.45 / 1457.90

Today the expected trading range is between 1457.90 support and 1475.93 resistance.


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