Gold analysis – 12 Sep 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

Wandering gold between US, EU & Asia!

Yellow metal recovering itself from $1485 low, while could not pass the $1500 as well. Gold is trading for the third consecutive day, between these two numbers, as the market was waiting for ECB rate decision and statement later today. Positive data from the US economy also pushed DX higher again from $98 low to $98.71, 10 days high, while the Asian market moves at a very positive area, pricing on upcoming trade talks while China scraps some US tariffs ahead of trade talks (BBC News). Today ECB will have a meeting for rate cut decision and its statement after that. At the same time, the US CPI and Initial jobless claims also will be in the spotlight. Positive data from the US with stronger USD will send the Gold price deeper and dovish policy with the 10bp rate cut from the ECB (As the market is expecting) will have weaker Euro against of USD, so again stronger USD, while this time, dovish policy may not help the Gold bears and it will help the bulls. For today the best decision for Gold traders is to wait until data to be realized after the ECB meeting.

Technical analysis

In the H1 chart, the price still moves above EMA20 and 50, with a thin distance while MACD’s mainline and signal lines above the 0-level, moving tangent to each other with very short positive histograms which remain of side movement with a bit positive interest, same signal which we can get from RSI and the Momentum indicator, as well. 1480 and 1500, still are the key support and resistance levels.

Pivot point: 1494.16

Resistance levels: 1503.27 / 1507.35

Support levels: 1490.08 / 1480.97

The expected trading range for today is between 1480.97 support and 1507.35 resistance.

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