Gold analysis – 11 Dec 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

Pause, ahead of FOMC.

The FOMC is widely seen on hold even after the robust payroll data, with no shift in rate policy for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the data validated the pause and left policymakers in a state of Fed Nirvana, at least for now. Fed Chair Powell will reiterate the economy and policy are in a “good place.” There is little risk of any downside “material changes” in the outlook anytime soon given the solid path for job growth. And, GDP will likely continue to modestly outpace the official Fed estimates, just as a benign inflation trajectory caps risk of rate hikes from the Fed as well. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly forecast update (SEP) and Chair Powell’s press conference. No change in policy and interest rate must support the USD and send the Gold deeper, while still uncertain trade talks and the UK election also are in the spotlight. The reaction of the market for this news and events is to wait and see, which a clear side movement for now is.

Technical Analysis:

$1480 and $1474 are key resistance levels, while $1459 and $1452 are key support levels at the moment. Technical indicators mostly supporting the bears, while the market volume also decreasing. Candles returned under all main EMA lines in the H4 chart, Parabolic SAR forming its dots above Candles, but closer, which can still have the signs of price recovering signals. Stochastic is in the downside, while RSI is a flat at 45.

Pivot point: 1464.34

Resistance levels: 1468.68 / 1473.46

Support levels: 1459.56 / 1455.22

Today, the expected trading range is between 1455.22 support and 1473.46 resistance.

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