Gold analysis – 1 Oct 2019


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By: Ahura Chalki

Dollar coup!

Rally has been started from Jun 28 at 95.56, since that DXY is in an uptrend to reach the $100, the same level when President Trump and his administration entered the White House, and now it is trading above $99.10. Until that, the market had a reaction to his presidency and USD was losing the grand since it was one of the most important headlines in his economic plans, cheaper USD to compete with China and Europe. Though he was kind of success to get it down to $88.12, however, it did not take a long to stay there, as many analysts have been telling that it was not a fully economical reaction, which is confirmed, so far. The real rally will start from $99.50 – 100 since it is the time to see the real reflects of his Administration’s economic activities and plans in the real market and not just on the papers. Last days Gold was losing its safe haven role, with raising the USD rate as well as the green stocks, with hoping on better results of trade talks and positive data from both China and the US, even though generally, economic growth was less than expected, but the point is we are close to solving the reason of this slow growth, trade talks on the spotlight and investors hopping on that, as both sides involved are ready to take a step.

Technical analysis

Technical indicators in the H1 and H4 charts, mostly remain of more bears with an oversold sign. RSI moves at 22-level, while Stochastic lines are under 20-level, both supporting the bears with oversold alarm. BB shows its second breakout from the lower band after five days trading between Middle line and lower line of BB, which is supportive of more bears, with the alarming possibility of reversal. EMA crossing strategy still fully supports of more bears. However, $1460, is the 61.8% Fibonacci levels (Daily chart, the rally started at $1402, with HH at $1558), since Gold is trading around $1462 for now, it is in very important level at the moment and risky entry.

Pivot point: 1477

Resistance levels: 1490.06 / 1513.39

Support levels: 1453.93 / 1441.13

Today the expected trading range is between 1453.93 support and 1490.06 resistance.

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