Gain 5%, Still down by 60%

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WTI analysis – 13 April 2020

By: Ahura Chalki

WTI started a week with a light positive reaction to the news that OPEC plus agreed to cut the supply by 9.7 Mbd. However, outlook still is not that bright which has to be. While IEA has been confirmed of 30% lower demand in the market on its latest report, current agreement cutting the supply for $10, while almost all main storages around the globe are full already, so this reduction cannot convince the investors and traders that still we will have any balance between the demand and supply. Oversupply in the market still will keep the pressure on the prices.

What I can see at the moment is that only positive headlines from coronavirus can help the market to recover a bit, if Germany, Italy and Spain, as their governors told at the weekend, start to reopen some parts of industries, otherwise, the market will be weaker.

WTI technical overview – Daily Chart

Flat RSI at 45, with prices over 50 DMA, while Parabolic SAR forms its dots under the candles, supports the bulls, in meantime, CCI returned lower from over than 200 level, moving under the 100 level, at 70, which if continue to the Zero level, can confirm deeper prices. $25.86, the 50 DMA is the main support and $30 is the psychological resistance level. Market volume generally is growing better and in case price could pass the key level of $30, it will push it to $32.20, the April 9 high. Breaching under 50 DMA also can open the doors for $21.65, (March 31 and April 1 low).

Pivot point: 28.76

Resistance levels: 30.16 / 33.52

Support levels: 25.40 / 24.00

Today, the expected trading range is between 24.00 support and 33.52 resistance.


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