Forex Update- 4 Nov 2019

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By: Ahura Chalki

Holiday in Japan and EU PMI data in thespotlight!

US:

After mixed data from last week, USD still suffering, even though GDP and NFP both were much better than expected. Generally, after publishing the Q3 earnings from the largest companies in the US, following with 25bp rate cut, hopes are back into the markets, stocks doing well, S&P500 and DOW30 are on their way to print new record high. Today the company order index in the calendar is the most important news for the US market and USD. DXY trading above $97 with a positive outlook in the short term and downtrend in the bigger picture, confirming by technical indicators.

EU:

EU started the week with better than expected numbers in Manufacturing PMI. Italian, German and French manufacturing data published earlier at 47.70, 50.70 and 42.1, respectively, while Eurozone PMI also printed higher ate 45.90, all for the past month. However, still Brexit and fear of the German economic recession weighting on Euro.

UK:

The week ahead will be very important for Sterling, along with uncertain situations ahead of the election, BoE must decide for its monetary policy and new interest rate, later this week. So far, the week started in a good position for the UK, since Construction PMI (Oct) printed at 44.2, 0.2 points better than expected earlier today.

 

EURUSD

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.1138

1.1111

1.1093

1.1183

1.1201

1.1228

 

 In the H1 chart, RSI remains of side movement, while BB also are so close to each other signaling of next jump or free-fall in the near future. 11.571 at EMA50 and lower band of BB, is immediate support level, which breaking of that can open the door for more bearish moves.

EURGBP

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

0.8563

0.8579

0.8606

0.86.47

0.8667

0.0.8674

 

In the H1 chart, still trading under 0.86470, the key resistance level, while EMA crossing strategy and technical indicators supporting the bulls. RSI moves above 65, supporting the bulls, in the line with Stochastic, while candles volume is getting higher.

EURJPY

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

120.436

120.106

119.856

121.016

121.266

121.596

 

Moves above 61.8% Fibonacci level of its last fall from 121.460, on Oct.30. EMA Crossing strategy and RSI both supporting the bulls in the H1 chart, as well as the H4 chart. 120.872 at 50% of Fibonacci is the key support level, while 121.210 is the 78.6% Fibonacci and key resistance level. Candles forming all above EMA200, 50 and 20, supporting the bulls.

USDJPY

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

107.93

107.69

107.49

108.37

108.57

108.81

 

Climbs higher toward 108.50 on Japanese holiday and DXY rebound. From the very beginning of this new trading week, pairing started to regain last week loses regarding weaker USD. Deposit of labor market positive data, USD closed the week with 0.7% lose, after the market reaction to 25bp rate cut by FED. Technical indicators at the H1 chart, all supporting the bulls. RSI moves above 70-level, while CCI also confirms the uptrend by moving above 100 level, with a slope up. On the other side, moving above the upper band of BB, signaling the overbought area, which can be the confirmation of more bulls and sharp falling in the return, if its direction changes.

GBPUSD

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.2917

1.2898

1.2870

1.2964

1.2992

1.3011

 

Despite despite construction PMI, USD gaining is weighing on Sterling. However, trading above 1.28838, EMA50 at the H4 chart still brings the 1.3000 in the spotlight. 200-day EMA at 1.2711 is a key support level and 1.3000 is psychological resistance at the moment. Technical indicators at the H1 chart, supporting the bears. RSI moves under 35-level, while EMA crossing strategy also in the bearish side. Parabolic SAR forming its dots way above candles, remains of more bearish.


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