Forex Update – 11 Nov 2019

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This post is also available in: فارسی (Persian)

 

By: Ahura Chalki

A disappointing day for the UK in a light Calendar day!

UK:

The main news of the day was about the UK economy. Q3 GDP realized at 0.3%, less than 0.4% of expected, while Monthly reading met the expectation of 0.3%. Manufacturing and Industrial production, both disappointed the markets, as well, with negative Trade balance (Global and EU zone, both). A very disappointing day for the British economy, less than 30 days before the new election at 12. December.

Trade Talks:

Still, there are some doubts about that since based on the “Reuters” report, “President Donald Trump on Friday said he has not agreed to rollbacks of U.S. tariffs sought by China”. The comment makes it clear that as long as there is nothing signed, we cannot bet on that. The trade war between the two largest economies of the globe, slowing down their economy, as well as the global economy.

Elsewhere:

We have a very light economic calendar today, mostly market reaction to the latest news from last week must lead the market for the rest of the day.

 

EURUSD

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.1007

1.0992

1.0967

1.1047

1.1072

1.1087

 

Pullback move, with so much thought and doubts in the lack of economic news. Investors mostly paying attention on any news from the US-China ‘Phase One’ deal, particularly after Friday’s comments by President Trump saying there is still no decision on any rollover of existing tariffs. While the pairing is still trading under key resistance of 1.10714, breathing the 1.10465 if it will be followed by mentioned key resistance, can change the direction, however trading under 1.10714, still keeps the indicators on the negative side. ADX, RSI, and EMA crossing strategy, all still support the bears.

EURGBP

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

0.8602

0.8584

0.8570

0.8635

0.8648

0.8667

 

Technical indicators in both H1 and H4 charts, supporting the bears, while breaching the key support level at 0.8650 also confirming the movement. RSI moves under 50-level confirming the same bearish signal of Stochastic and EMA crossing strategy. However, low trading volume, cannot support the trend for long at the moment and side movement is more likely in larger charts, for now.

 

EURJPY

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

120.09

119.81

119.42

120.76

121.16

121.44

 

Downtrend continues for the third week on a row. EUR losing the ground against most currencies, as well as JPY. Candles are moving under EMA200, 50 and 20, while the EMA crossing strategy also supports the bears. 120.354 is the key and immediate level as well, which has been broken earlier today to strongly confirm the downtrend. In reverse, if the price could move above this level and trade steady, it can be the sign of reversal, otherwise, as most technical indicators remain, the downtrend is likely to be continued.

USDJPY

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

109.04

108.86

108.63

109.44

109.66

109.84

 

JPY correction with risk back on the market helped the currency to gain some of the previous losses. Meanwhile, weaker USD helped the paring as well, to fall from its one month high, seen last week. While pairing is trading above key support of 108.92, technical indicators remain of the more bearish move at the moment. Parabolic SAR forming its dots way above candles (at EMA20) at the H1 chart, while the price also moves between the middle and lower bands of BB, with the negative signal. RSI in both H1 and H4 charts moves under 50-level.

GBPUSD

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.2760

1.2763

1.2703

1.2816

1.2849

1.2873

 

Regardless of negative economic data, Sterling gaining against USD, following the USD weakness. Technical indicators in the H1 chart, supporting the bulls, while in the larger chart and in the H4 chart, pairing moves in a downtrend. In the H1 chart, Parabolic SAR remains of bullish, same signal as BB has with having the candles between middle and upper lines. 1.28156 was a key resistance, which has been passed earlier. RSI moves above 50-level with a positive signal.


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