Forex Market – 5 Nov 2019

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This post is also available in: فارسی (Persian)

 

By: Ahura Chalki

RBA Hold the interest rate, market waiting for US data!

Asia:

Asian news started with RBA Interest Rate Decision, which they hold the record low at 0.75%. Later this week minutes of the meeting will be published. As the market was expecting there was no change in a rate cut, which supports the AUD, against other currencies. China’s Caixin Services PMI published earlier today also was with a decline and confused the market ahead of optimism in trade talks which weighted on WTI price.

UK:

DXY recovering despite positive construction PMI weighed on GBPUSD pairing, pressure continued in Asian season as well, however, today’s Composite and Service PMI can help the sterling while both realized at 50.0 and better than expected.

US:

The stock market’s rally following the optimism in trade talks continuing, despite the latest challenges of tariffs. DXY trading above the key level of $97.30. While we are waiting for today’s PMI data from Markit Composite and Service sections that Trade Balance also is in the spotlight. Negative news from mentioned data after a decline in company orders of the day before can put more pressure on USD, against crossing pairings.

EURUSD

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.1110

1.1091

1.1058

1.1162

1.1195

1.1214

 

Following the lack of data from the EU, for today and DXY recovering, pairing losing the momentum. Trend moves between middle and lower band of BB, since the US season of the day before, with clear bearish signal in the short term, while in the daily chart still, it is on positive side. 1.1140, which is fitted with the lower band of BB in the H1 chart, is the immediate support level while crossing EMA50 at 1.11420 can be a signal of a trend reversal. RSI moves under 50-level, Stochastic also supporting the bears in the line with RSI, by returning from Overbought area and cutting down the signal line with its mainline.

EURGBP

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

0.86222

0.8609

0.8597

0.8647

0.8659

0.0.8672

 

Technical indicators clearly supporting the bears. RSI moves under 50-level, in both H1 and H4 charts, while stochastic also moves in the negative direction, supporting the bears. The volume of downtrend also remains quite strong enough to confirm it at least in the short and middle term.

EURJPY

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

120.71

120.56

120.36

121.06

121.26

121.41

 

Trading above 61.8% Fibonacci, while earlier could pass the 78.66% as well. As long as candles are forming above 121.00 bulls are on focus, the next targets will sit on 121.22, 121.30, and then EMA200 at the daily chart in 121.74. RSI moves above 50-level, while EMA crossing strategy also supports the bulls. Candles above EMA20, 50 and 200 in both H1 and H4 charts, cleary supporting the uptrend.

USDJPY

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

108.26

107.91

107.71

108.81

109.01

109.36

 

Moves in the clear uptrend channel towards 109.00, which look like available. The trend is soft and bullish, with no sign of overbought and returning. US-China trade optimism weighed on the JPY’s safe-haven status. In both H1 and H4 charts, technical indicators remain of bullish. Parabolic SAR dots forming under candles for the third day in a row. Candles are between the Middle and upper band of BB, with clear bullish signals, while RSI moves above 50-level, in both timeframes.

GBPUSD

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.2855

1.2831

1.2787

1.2932

1.2967

1.2992

 

USD weakness earlier today helped the paring to recover from daily low at 1.28768, however red candle right after that challenging the correction. Parabolic SAR in the H1 chart just started challenging the downtrend with forming its dots under candles, however it is still soon to count it as a positive signal, while RSI still moves under 50-level. EMA50 at 28.860 is a key resistance level while crossing the 1.2900 is the next resistance, on the flip side, breaking 1.28640 can warning the market for future downside movement if it can hold the two 4hours candles under this level.


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