Forex Action – 29 Oct.

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This post is also available in: فارسی (Persian)

 

By: Ahura Chalki

Trump deal and Boris tensions with Parliament!

US:

As far as it is important week in the US with FED meeting ahead and NFP on Friday, we can add Trade talks as always on the table, as well. US President Donald Trump on Monday said the phase one of the trade deal with China was going to be signed ahead of schedule”, which weighted on DXY to fell to $97.42. Today in the calendar, we will have Consumer Confidence, which is expected to rebound to 128.0 in October, from 125.1 in September and an 8-month high of 135.8 in July. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high. The uncertain situation about FED decision, despite market pricing on 25bp rate cut, will supposed to keep the DXY mostly in the side movement and $97.45 – 98 range.

EU:

Brexit seams got to the point after that the EU accepted delay till 31. January, and now the UK is the scene of political tensions for early parliament election. Today Boris will bring a new Bill to call the election, after it’s failing of day before to use the different legal route. Yesterday, Mr. Draghi in his last speech at Frankfort, had nothing especial to surprise the market, just mentioned that “the monetary policy could still achieve its objective, but added that it can do so faster and with fewer side effects if fiscal policies are aligned with it” (NYTimes).

Japan:

Ahead of Thursday BOJ interest rate decision, fewer requests for safe-havens, weighted on JPY to lose the ground against most currency pairs. Earlier CPI, 0.5% also was less than the expected 0.7%, which can add pressures on Japanese Yen.

 

EURUSD

 

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.1008

1.1040

1.1060

1.1112

1.1114

1.1164

 

Trading under 1.11, lost all the gains of the day before. Technical indicators in both, H1 & H4 charts remain of bearish. 1.10911 can be immediate resistance, at the EMA20 period in the H1 chart. Since DXY both H1 and the H4 chart returned to positive, the pair seems mostly at bear’s side.

 

EURGBP

 

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

0.8610

0.8594

0.8573

0.86.47

0.8667

0.0.8674

 

Following the cable weakness, the pair gained back all its loss of the day before, currently trying to attack to key resistance level of 0.8649. Breaching this level can help the pairing to leave the side movement, after a free fall of 10. October. In the H4 chart, indicators still supporting the side movement, however, things are different in the H1 chart. Stochastic returned to the bullish move by crossing the signal line with its mainline, volume at 3746 support the bullish candles and RSI got back above 55-level

 

EURJPY

 

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

120.577

120.204

120.00

121.154

121.358

121.731

 

Eroded the main part of yesterday’s advance, trading so close to immediate support at 120.577, under both EMA50 & 20, however, EMA crossing strategy still supports the bulls, while RSI moves at 35-level, remains bearish. In the H4 chart, the EMA crossing strategy also supporting the bearish movement. Since 21. October, the paring returned to downtrend and its HH always was lower than previous.

 

USDJPY

 

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

108.34

108.50

108.73

109.11

109.27

109.50

 

Parabolic SAR currently started to send the bearish signal and at the same time, in the H4 chart, Candles got to close to its dots, formed under them, signaling of likely changing the direction. Just returned from its 3 months high at 109.063, with passing all its daily resistance levels. In shorter time frames, technical indicators mostly supporting the bears, while in the wider timeframes, all about bulls.

 

GBPUSD

 

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

1.2822

1.2783

1.2755

1.2888

1.2916

1.2955

 

               After reaching the six months high at 1.30117, downtrend started from the same day, 21. Oct. Trading between a middle and lower band of BB, confirming the downtrend in the H4 chart, while breakout from the lower band in the H1 chart, has a correction signal, near sone. RSI and Parabolic SAR indicators also both supporting the bears.


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