By: Andria Pichidi
The political saga is expected to continue next week after the resignation announcement of Prime Minister May, who will step down on June 7th, after President Trump’s three-day state visit..
Tuesday – 28 May 2019
- Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) –The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee. It is likely that BoE will state again that it will remain on hold now until after the Brexit D-Day.
- CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00)– The Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 130.0 in May, from 129.2 in April and a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January, versus an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.
- RBNZ Financial Stability Report (NZD, GMT 20:00)– After RBNZ did the expected in March, leaving the official cash rate 1.75% following its policy review and surprised by stating “the more likely direction of our next OCR move is down.”, it is now expected to remain on the dovish side along with the rest of the central banks.
Wednesday – 29 May 2019
- Unemployment (EUR, GMT 07:55) –The German unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% in May, however the number of vacancies is expected to drop to -7k.
- Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00)– At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change. However, the abandonment of the mild tightening bias in the last meeting, opened the door to both rate hikes and rate cuts, depending on the flow of data.
Thursday – 30 May 2019
- Building Permits (AUD, GMT 01:30)– The reduction in building permits is expected to continue, while with the indicator registering an 15.5% decline in March, expectations are that the decline will stand at 14% in April.
- Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30)– The Preliminary GDP is expected to show a revised 2.9% gain in Q1, versus the 3.2% advance figure released last month, following a 2.2% growth rate in Q4.
- Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:50)– The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have dropped slightly at 1.2% y/y in May. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.2% m/m in April, compared to -0.6% m/m in March, while Retail Sales are expected to have fallen by 0.8% y/y, compared to 1.0% in March.
Friday – 31 May 2019
- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00)– The preliminary German HICP inflation for April jumped to 2.1% y/y from 1.4% y/y. However, the reading for May is expected to fall back to 1.5% y/y.
- Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30)– The Q1 GDP is expected to increase to 1.2% after it slowed to a 0.4% growth rate in Q4 from 2.0% in Q3 (q/q, saar).
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