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- Gross Domestic Product (JPY, Sunday GMT 23:50)
- Growth in Japan is expected to have increased by 0.4% in the first quarter, slightly lower than last time, reflecting weaker than expected household spending. The annualized outcome is seen at 1.8% after the stronger than expected 2.1% growth.
- Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 02:00)
- May’s exports are anticipated to contract to 3.8% y/y, from the 2.7% y/y. The trade balance should grow to $20.5bln in May from $13.83B in March. This report will be consistent with an ongoing slowing in China’s domestic economy (falling imports) and the impact of the trade war with the US (drop in exports).
- Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30)
- The two indices are expected to have fallen back to 0.1% m/m and 0.2% m/m in April, confirming that the sector is back in contraction.
Tuesday – 11 June 2019
- Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30)
- UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure is expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March.
- ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30)
- UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.
Wednesday – 12 June 2019
- Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30)
- May’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 2.7% y/y following the rise of 2.5% y/y in April.
- Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30)
- May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May.
Thursday – 13 June 2019
- Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30)
- While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.1% in May, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 14K compared to 28.4K last month.
- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00)
- The German HICP inflation fell back in April to 1.3% y/y from 2.1% y/y. In May, however, it is expected to rise to 2.1% y/y again.
- SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30)
- The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact.
Friday – 14 June 2019
- Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30)
- Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00)
- The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98.
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