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By: Andria Pichidi
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to remain above neutral at 40.2 in September.
- Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q4 GDP is expected to be higher at 0.5% q/q following the last reading but unchanged from the reading of Q1.
- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation for August held steady at 1.0% y/y. However the preliminary reading for Septembe is expected to rise at 1.2% y/y.
Tuesday – 01 October 2019
- Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The RBA minutes from the September policy meeting showed that the central bank remains disposed to further easing. AUDUSD has been amid a clear downtrend since early 2018, which has approximated the development of the US-China trade war and consequential slowing in the Chinese economy, which is Australia’s biggest export customer.
- Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for September is expected to remain unchanged to 1.0% y/y, while core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y.
- Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The preliminary September Eurozone PMI readings, released so far, were striking for failing to show an expected improvement and instead showing a marked contraction in manufacturing activity, with service sector activity slowing sharply. The final reading is expected to be confirmed at 41.4. The weakness German manufacturing – triggered by geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty is spreading to other sectors and across the Eurozone.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 51.0 in September from 49.1 in August, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August of last year.
Wednesday – 02 October 2019
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 140k for September compared to the 195K in August.
Thursday – 03 October 2019
- Australia’s Trade Balance (AUD, GMT, 1:30) – Australia export growth in September is expected to have reduced. Hence the trade balance could slip to 6,000M from 7,268 M last month.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 54.5 in September from 56.4 in August and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year. The sentiment surveys have been erratic in recent months likely due to competing perspectives on the trade war, troubles abroad, and stock price gyrations.
Friday – 04 October 2019
- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) Along with Wednesday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in at 155k in September, following a 130k increase in August. The unemployment rate should tick down to 3.6%, after holding at 3.7% in the prior three months, and hours-worked are estimated to be up 0.1%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, matching the 3.2% pace of August. We see payroll gains averaging 157k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.
- Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 18:00)
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