Events to Look Out for Next Week, 2-6 September


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By: Andria Pichidi

  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45)
  • The Caixin manufacturing PMI acts as a leading indicator for the whole Chinese economy. The reading for August is expected to hold below the neutral zone, at 49.8 from 49.9 last month.
  • Manufacturing PMI (GBP & EUR, GMT 08:30)
  • In August, the German and UK PMI are expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, 43.6 and 48.0 respectively.

Tuesday – 03 September 2019

  • Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30)
  • Australian July Retail Sales data are projected to rise by 0.3% m/m from 0.4% m/m in June.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30)
  • In July, RBA Governor Lowe’s statement, while justifying the easing in policy, contained some cautiously upbeat observations, noting that “a lift in wages growth” is expected in the private sector, that inflation is anticipated to pick up (the central scenario being for underlying inflation to be around 2% in 2020 and a little higher after that), and that “tentative signs” of stabilization are being seen in Sydney and Melbourne housing markets. After implementing back-to-back rate cuts in June and July, RBA will be on hold for the foreseeable, albeit retaining a dovish policy stance.
  • ECB’s Nominated President Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 07:00) 
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) –
  • The ISM index is expected to rise to 51.4 in August from 51.2 in July, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August of last year.

Wednesday – 04 September 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30)
  • Australia’s economic growth is likely  to remain soft in Q2 2019, with GDP rising by 0.5% q/q, including consumption growth of 0.4% up from 0.3% in the March quarter.
  • Trade Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30)
  • Canada could ran to a C$0.3 bln trade deficit in July, from the C$0.1 bln trade surplus in June which contrasted with projections for a return to a mild shortfall.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 14:00)
  • Last time, BoC reaffirmed its commitment to steady policy, as an economy returning to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.”. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.

Thursday – 05 September 2019

  • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15)
  • Employment change is seen falling short from July’s outcome (156K) to 140k in the number of employed people in August.
  • Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00)
  • The US Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 54.1 in August from 53.7 in July and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. A stabilization in sentiment is seen through the first half of 2019 after a winter drop, and we’ve see a renewed down-tilt into Q3, though most sentiment measures remain in expansion territory, and the early-August sentiment measures were firm.

Friday – 06 September 2019

  • UK court hearing on forcing no-deal Brexit
  • NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30)
  • A 155k August nonfarm payroll rise has been estimated, following a 164k increase in July. The unemployment rate should tick down to 3.6% after an uptick to 3.7% in June that was sustained in July, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.3%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m.
  • Employment Change (CAD, GMT 12:30)
  • Employment change is seen spiking to 12.5k in the number of employed people in August, compared to the decline 24.2.2k in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%.

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