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By: Andria Pichidi
- Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00)
- The Euro Area CPI for July is expected to hold at 1.1%y/y in the final July reading from 1.3%y/y in June. Energy price inflation was clearly largely to blame and the core rate fell back to just 0.9%y/y from 1.1%y/y in the previous month. The core is anticipated to remain unchanged as well. With growth slowing down and the improvement on the labour market starting to fizzle out, chances are that inflation will continue to undershoot the ECB’s target range, thus adding to arguments for a comprehensive easing package in September.
Tuesday – 20 August 2019
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30)
- The RBA left rates on hold in its last meeting, after back-to-back rate cuts in June and July, which put the cash rate at a record low of 1.00%, while Governor Lowe said that more easing measures could be needed. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance.
- Manufacturing Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30)
- Manufacturing sales are anticipated to grow 2.0% in June after a 1.6% rebound in shipment values was revealed during May and following a 0.4% decline in April. The surge in transport equipment sales is consistent with the improving economy and as such fits with the BoC’s overall view that the economy is improving after temporary weakness in Q4/Q1.
Wednesday – 21 August 2019
- Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30)
- Canada’s CPI did not challenge the outlook for steady BoC policy this year. CPI slowed to a 2.0% y/y pace in June from the lofty 2.4% y/y clip in May. Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. Even though CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors, the annual and monthly numbers for July are expected to remain steady. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020.
- FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00)
- The FOMC minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance and are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
Thursday – 22 August 2019
- Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 1
- Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00)
- July PMI readings highlighted manufacturing weakness. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for August, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 46.3 from 46.5 last month, still down from 47.6 in June, and indicates a deepening recession in a sector that has been hit very hard by global trade tensions and no-deal Brexit risks. Meanwhile Services PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.2.
- Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45)
- Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to grow in August, to 51.0 from 50.4, as Services PMIs are likely to fall to 51.7 from 53.
- New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45)
- Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is good for the currency.
Friday- 23 August 2019
- Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 2
- Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30)
- Retail sales are expected to have decreased in Canada, with consensus forecasts suggesting a -0.5% m/m decline should be registered in June and an unchanged ex-autos component at 0.3%. In May, Retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% for total sales and declining 0.3% for the ex-autos component. The decline in sales was driven by a 2.0% tumble in food and beverage stores. The report casts some doubt on the resiliency of the consumer sector to the ongoing parade of worrisome geopolitical and trade developments.
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