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By: Andria Pichidi
The Three big uncertainties – Depth, Duration of downturn and Timing of recovery.
Over 1 mln confirmed cases, over 3Bln people on lockdown, rising death toll OVERSHADOW of more recovered patients and ultimately undercut the markets’ attempts to find a more balanced footing. – This might result in a massive global contraction in Q2.
Markets incautious and Risk off condition – Bond yields and stocks (+2%) remained above the levels seen during the peak of the market panic in mid-March.
The USA500 at R2: 2578, GER30 sideways close to PP: 9544 and UK100 down at S1: 5340. (as PM admitted to hospital )
USD INDEX sustains gains above its 100 barriers.
OPEC+ teleconference delayed until April 9 – Russia said Saturday it would reduce output by 10% if the US joins in cuts, Trump saying he may place tariffs on oil if production cuts – USOIL gapped down today 27.30 from 28.90
German Feb manufacturing orders dropped -1.4% m/m – less than feared
• JPY – Yen declines as Risk appetite improves, So USDJPY holds above R1: at 108.85, Next to R at 109.20.
• GBP – under pressure on PM news. Currently below its PP: 1.2291, S1: 1.2178 and R1:1.2378.
• EUR – lifted to 1.0834 but small candles suggest consolidation. Overall negative. S:1.0763 and R: 1.0855.
• CAD– the biggest gainer -USDCAD drifted to 1.4110 from 1.4250. PP: 1.4175 and S: 1.4085 and 1.4040
• NZD trades above its PP. Currently at 0.0.5898– R at 0.5907 – 0.5915. S: 0.5828
• AUD – trades above its PP: 0.6015. R1 at 0.6052 and S: 0.5957
• BITCOIN – sustains its $7000 floor and it trades above its R1 at 7018. R2 is at 7254 and PP: 6804.
• GOLD – rebounded from $1600 lows to $1624 (above PP). Next R: 1628 and S: 1608.
TODAY: Empty EU calendar. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey ahead along with Japanese Household spending tonight.
Biggest (FX) Mover – CADJPY (-1.27%) – rebounded from the open level at 76 and reached its R2: at 77.27. Nearly 115 pips move. It stalled at its upper Hourly Bollinger Bang at 77.20 while all its exponential intraday MAs sloped higher. RSI (67) positive but stalled below 70, MACD histogram & signal line rising above 0. Stochastics in the OB zone. – H1 ATR is at 0.25 and daily ATR is at 1.40 – Daily trend is flat – Sideways, below its 38.2% Fib. level since Feb. peak.
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