Crude Oil analysis – 6 Jan 2020


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By: Ahura Chalki

10 months high and heading higher!

The tensions which sent Gold higher is in favor of Oil as well. As the type of tensions is different from what we had before, which we’re sending the price lower, these days, things happening between the US, as a biggest Oil producer, Iraq, the 4th biggest Oil producer at the moment, and Iran, which as a funder of OPEC, holds the second-biggest oil reserves in the Middle East, with 9% of the world’s total proved oil reserves. It is clear that tensions between these countries for sure will push the Oil price higher. Especially when we know that Iran has the ability to close the strait of “Hormuz”, while we know almost a fifth of global Oil usage, passes through this Strait. As long as these tensions growing higher, there are more possibilities of bulls. I have to mention that If in September 2019, Oil tested the $63.15 peak, after the drone attack, it was a clear scenario and we knew what happened and how to solve it, but now, what is going on is a story, with uncertain and unclear fate and it has deeper effect on the Oil market.

WTI Technical Analysis:

Candles could breathe the main Fibonacci level (61.8%) at the $63.75 for the second week in a raw. Oil trading above $64 level at the moment, while technical indicators in all main charts (M30, H1, H4 & Daily), supporting the bulls. Candles are forming between and above Middle and Upper bands of BB, remain of more bullish while getting support from RSI and Stochastic. $66.41 2019 April high and $69.50, the 78.6% of Fibonacci level are next resistance levels, while failure to hold above $63.71 could yield a corrective pullback to $62.00.

Pivot point: 62.63

Resistance levels: 64.31 / 65.54

Support levels: 61.40 / 59.72

Today, the expected trading range is between 61.40 support and 65.54 resistance.

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