Crude Oil analysis – 3 Oct 2019

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By: Ahura Chalki

Oil price in line with global recession fears!

Oil price kept falling more to teste the 8 weeks low at %52.05 overnight after that Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories report that the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms, raised by 3.100M comparing with previous week of 2.412M and 1.567M of the forecast. Positive EIA report came after the negative ADP none-farm employment report which has been led the stock market to a very negative zone. “However, an acceleration in the slowdown in US shale oil supply will likely temper the impact of any decline in oil demand in 2020. The rig count has fallen and shale oil output has dropped from 150kbbls to only 53kbbls.” (FXStreet). We have to wait now and see what will be the market reaction to this news and data.

Technical analysis:

Technical indicators at the H4 and H1 chart, remain of more bearish at this level. EMA crossing strategy supporting the bears, while Parabolic SAR also signaling the same, with forming its Dots away above candles. RSI moves at 30 level with the clear bearish signal, while Stochastic has oversold signal, there, at 25-level.

Pivot Point: 52.76

Resistance levels: 53.47 / 55.00

Support levels: 51.23 / 50.52

Today the expected trading range is between 51.23 support and 53.47 resistance.


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