Crude Oil analysis – 27 Feb 2020


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By: Ahura Chalki

EIA could not beat the fears!

WTI declined above 2.50% from yesterday, despite the EIA negative report. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) reports for weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms for the week ending 21 February, confirm the decline to 0.452M almost at the same level of the previous week, but much lower the 1.005M of market expectation. While usually and in the regular situation, this report, especially after the same results of the decline in the API report supposed to send the prices much higher, however, since the situation is not the regular situation, the fears of global spreading of the virus, especially now, when the EU also got involved in that, lead the market, due to lower demands.

“OPEC is monitoring the coronavirus spread ahead of its scheduled March 5-6 meeting, the cartel’s Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said Thursday. This comes in light of a suspected case of the infection being reported in Vienna near the secretariat.” (FxStreet)

Technical analysis:

Technical indicators confirm the more bears ahead for today as well, after 4 consecutive days of the downtrend. In the H1 chart, price moves under the middle line of BB, RSI at 30, while Stochastic moves at the oversold area in the clear downtrend. Trading under $49 as the key resistance for now, clearly supports the bears. Since we are at the 12 months low, eyes can turn to $43, as of December 2018’s low.

Pivot point: 49.00

Resistance levels: 49.70 / 51.13

Support levels: 47.57 / 46.87

Today, the expected movement is between 46.87 support and 49.70 resistance.

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