Crude Oil analysis – 22 Oct 2019

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By: Ahura Chalki

Can API break the record?

As today is the Tuesday, we are waiting for API report, while the last report of the American Petroleum Institute, shows 10.500 M barrels raising in the inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks, which was 31 Month high, after 11.600M at March 2017. Checking the next report after such a big raise on report shows next week, never could beat that, not after 11.600M barrels report and not after 6.18 in September 2017, 9.880M in October 2018 and not after 8.600M in May 2019. However, statistics show it is less likely that the API report can beat the previous record, which will be in favor of Oil price. At the same time, despite the progress in trade talks, as White House website reported the day before, still fears of Brexit and slowing down in the global economic growth, could not help the Oil price to hold itself above $54, after the sharp raising of last Friday, following positive signals of Brexit and OPEC+ plan to increase the production. For Oil price, today API report and before that, Brexit voting will be much important than any other news and data.

Technical overview:

Closely look at the Oil chart shows the importance of $52.90 and $53.65 levels, as two very important key levels. Stable movement above or under these levels can create the next trend for Oil, either to send it under $50 level, if Brexit deal cannot pass the parliament and especially if EU does not accept the extending request of Johansson (which is so unlikely) and API break its 31-month high record. For now, RSI still moves under 50-level and supporting the bears, the same signal which we can get from Parabolic SAR as well, in the H1 chart and EMA crossing strategy.

Pivot point: 53.52

Resistance levels: 54.23 / 54.81

Support levels: 52.95 / 52.24

Today the expected trading range is between 52.24 support and 54.81 resistance.


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