Crude Oil analysis – 21 Nov 2019


This post is also available in: فارسی (Persian)


By: Ahura Chalki

Can we be optimistic?

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) data showed crude inventories in the United States increased by 1.37 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 15, less than the 1.543 million barrels of expecting, which helped the WTI price to raise back over $57, after testing three weeks low at $54.80, following disappointments in trade talks, after raising tensions between the US and China after US House of Representatives Bill for Hong Kong. However, despite the EIA missing data, WTI dips in Asia by increased disappointments in trade talks. On the other hand, after last days news from Russia that they will not accompany Saudi Arabia with more cuts in supply, “NY times” reported: “President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia and OPEC have ‘a common goal’ of keeping the oil market balanced and predictable, and Moscow will continue cooperation under the global supply curbs deal”., the report which will support the Oil market, at least until December 5, the next OPEC+ meeting, unless if we have clear negative news from “phase-One” trade deal.

Technical Analysis:

The daily chart shows that stable slow uptrend started from October 3 low at $50.95, has been broken. However, yesterday’s free fall under $54.80, which breached the 38.2% of the Fibonacci level at $55.60, could not take long and now it is back ($56.80) closer to 50% of Fibonacci at $57. Breathing $57 can help the bulls while breaching $56.30 if it will be confirmed by $55.60 will helps the bear for a deeper move.

Pivot point: 56.53

Resistance levels: 58.28 / 59.09

Support levels: 55.76 / 54.01

Today the expected trading range is between 55.76 support and 58.28 resistance.

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