Crude Oil analysis – 20 Sep 2019

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By: Ahura Chalki

Oil between two Wars!

As I mentioned in my daily analysis for Gold, here also I need to bring up it again. Michael Pillsbury, a prominent adviser to President Donald Trump, told the South China Morning Post that Trump would raise tariffs substantially on Chinese imports unless a trade agreement can be quickly negotiated” (investing.com). While trade talks worries will bring the weaker economy and lower numbers of Oil buyers, at the same time Middle East tensions, especially when we are talking about the security of Saudi Arabian Oil refineries, pushing the price higher. The exact reason why sharply raising the prices from down $54 to $63. Even if in next days, Oil prices had a correction and recovered the 50% of its gain by reaching the $57.50, still tensions could not let the price to lose the more weight, however now with this news comment from Michael Pillsbury, caution will be back to the market until next two weeks, when finally we will have next round of trade talks, as it was agreed between the US and China to be held in early October.

Technical Analysis

$60, $61.60, $62.80 and $64.80 are next key levels for more bulls, while $57, $55.50 and $53.90 are key support levels. Technical indicators in the H4 chart have very mixed signals. RSI with side movement signal, moving at the 50-level for the third day in a row. While Stochastic cannot confirm any of bulls or bears, Parabolic SAR giving the bearish signal. However, EMA crossing strategy, still supporting the bulls.

Pivot point: 58.63

Resistance levels: 59.35 / 60.16

Support levels: 57.82 / 57.10

The expected trading range for today is between 57.82 support and 60.16 resistance.


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