Crude Oil analysis – 2 Oct 2019


This post is also available in: فارسی (Persian)


By: Ahura Chalki

The API reading, should we take it as a surprise?

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the inventory levels of crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks of the United States, which in first look surprisingly dropped to -5.92M from +1.40M prior. Even if it is a very amazing difference at the number, and in the first look can surprise us, however, thinking twice, will bring it as a nice idea of the policy. Using the stocked Oil, for a short time, and invest a bit more time and effort on political activities to cool the situation and again buy the Oil at the lower price to filling the Tanks, so in this case, it was so likely to see these numbers and the Oil prices, lower than the previous jump. That was the reason why we did not see any especial and big movement at the Oil prices overnight movements. Actually we can remain the ISM Manufacturing PMI data as well, which with negative reading, can break down the outlooks of economic growth, which has a negative effect on the Oil prices. The latest headlines from the Aljazeera quote speaker of the Iranian Parliament while showing Tehran’s readiness to have a dialogue with Saudi Arabia also will help the geopolitical situation to become cooler, as it was also part of the plan, not just for the US, even for the EU and China, as well, nobody wants war in an area where 30% of Global energy comes, from. Today, the market will pay attention to EIA reports as well.

Technical Analysis

At the H4 chart, still technical indicators remain of more bearish, as previous 7 trading days. Parabolic SAR forms its dots way above Candles, with supporting the bears, in the line of EMA crossing strategy, which is the same signal as we can see at the RSI, with moving under 40-level.

Pivot point: 53.86

Resistance levels: 54.77 / 55.66

Support levels: 52.97 / 52.06

Today the expected trading range is between 52.97 support and 55.66 resistance.

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