Crude Oil analysis – 18 Oct 2019

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By: Ahura Chalki

The strong US EIA and Chinese weak GDP!

While the news is not favored for Oil, that yesterday, after the strong data from EIA, Geopolitical tensions helped the Oil price to move higher. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories reported 9.281M increase in the weekly change of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. This report published, when Turkey denied any kind of truce and negotiation with Kurds. But later on and after Mike Pompeo and Mike Pence’s visit from Turkey and their meeting with Mr. Erdogan, tensions eased in the Middle East. Overnight and when “China posts slowest GDP growth in almost three decades” (Reuters), the situation totally changed and helped the Oil price to ease from its weekly high at 54.22. Currently, it is trading under $54.90. I have to mention that another reason for raising the oil price, during yesterday’s evening, was weaker USD, as well, when it fell to its two months low at $97.19. For now, we do not have any especial news which can help the Oil price, other than positive news from Brexit, if the UK parliament will agree with Johansson’s and EU negotiator’s agreement.

Technical overview:

Technical indicators have mixed signals. Parabolic SAR has the reversal signal in the H1 chart with reaching the candles from down, while at the H4 chart, it still supports the bulls. RSI in both H1 and H4 charts moves above 50-level. EMA crossing strategy, supports bulls at the H1 chart, while at the H4 chart has a sign of reversal. Trading with support and resistance levels in this situation is more logical.

Pivot point: 53.80

Resistance levels: 54.91 / 55.33

Support levels: 53.38 / 52.27

Today the expected trading range is between 1477.07 support and 1504.74 resistance.


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