Crude Oil analysis – 18 Feb 2020


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By: Ahura Chalki

Lower demand and OPEC!

Officials Chines health authorities confirmed 1,886 new cases of coronavirus, while the number of the new deaths were 98, as of Feb 17 (BBC). Not just the virus fears, economic issues, lower trade and less than expected numbers in the retail sales in leading economies, signaling of lower demand for the first quarter of 2020.

“As far as production cuts, President Putin has yet to signal his potential support for an additional OPEC+ curtailment, while the Libyan conflict presents another avenue for more barrels to return to the market” (FxStreet).

Putting them together, we cannot see a bright future for the black gold market. Today the US and Canadian markets will return to the work and we have to wait and see the reaction of the US market to the latest update, while Nikkei and Hang Seng fell more than %1.35 in the Asian season and Shanghai Stock, about %30, as reaction to latest EU and Japanese data, as well as the news that Virus spreading more among Nurses, doctors, and health authorities.

What market confirms is that, as long as OPEC members and its allies in the OPEC+, cannot agree on the same and common plan, the market will be hit more.

WTI technical analysis:

After 4 days in a row of an uptrend, yesterday WTI returned from its 3 weeks high under $52, which is a key support level, at the moment. This decline can be as stabilizing the footrest, if just for short term, otherwise, closing the market under this level, will send the prices under $50, in the next down move.

Pivot point: 52.30

Resistance levels: 52.60 / 52.75

Support levels: 52.15 / 51.85

Today, the expected trading range is between 51.85 support and 52.60 resistance.

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