Crude oil analysis – 17 Sep 2019


This post is also available in: فارسی (Persian)


By: Ahura Chalki

A Tangled Web of the Gulf!

Crude Oil prices back above $62 at overnight trading for USOIL is clearly saying that to solve this political riddle, needs more time than we were thinking. As it can be a very sensitive decision, in the most dangerous region of the world, everyone taking steps slow and thoughtful. Saudi Arabia indirectly blaming Iran, while the US president took the step back from its first tweet of being ready to attack and support the Saudis to latest comment that we need more documentation. The NY Times reported that “Trump Says Iran Appears Responsible for Saudi Attack but That He Wants to Avoid War”. Anyhow they have to find someone to blame, either Iran or the Houthis or any other country and group, but it is not the point. The point is that along with announcing the culprit, they have to take any action, but which action is rational, to go to the war or go into negotiation, with killing the time. In any of the mentioned scenarios, based on lack of news and the extent of conjectures, investors and traders feeling this risky situation with a minus 5M barrel Oil, it does not seem bearish for now.

Technical analysis

H1 chart for daily trade of today has a bit different signal than H4 chart. While in the H4 chart most indicators remain of more bulls coming ahead, H1 Chart has mixed signals. Parabolic SAR started signaling the bearish move with forming the dots above the candles, while RSI with moving above 67-level still remains of bullish. At the same time EMA crossing strategy still supporting the bulls, as well.


Pivot point: 61.20

Resistance levels: 63.92 / 65.80

Support levels: 59.33 / 56.62

The expected trading range for today is between 59.33 support and 63.92 resistance.

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