Crude Oil analysis – 12 Feb 2020


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By: Ahura Chalki

WTI rose, despite API report!

The market still shows confused on inventory reports or Supply -Demand Chain. The American Petroleum Institute reported the weekly change of inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks and it confirms of raising the inventories by an unexpected number of 6.000 M barrels for the week, ended 8 February, compering 4.180 M of the previous week.

Due to the slower spread of the virus, fears eased in the market as well. Part of Chinese factories and companies reopened, while officials say it needs more time to get back to the same level before the virus spreading.

On the OPEC front, last signals from Russia, shows they are agreeing on one more cutting supply plan by 600 barrels a day, even though OPEC+ emergency meeting canceled and they were meet in the march, as it was planned, but signs shows they are getting ready for next supply-cutting plan.

For today, the market is waiting for the EIA report and more updates from OPEC+ members.

WTI technical analysis:

In the overnight trading hours, WTI could test 3 days high above $50.80, which is immediate resistant well, while $50.30 the 50 H-MA is the immediate support for now. What we can see in the H1 chart is that EMA crossing strategy, returned to the positive mode, while ADX also supporting that. RSI moves flat, but above 59, while stochastic has a correction signal at this level.

Pivot point: 50.22

Resistance levels: 50.58 / 51.15

Support levels: 49.65 / 49.30

Today, the expected trading range is between 49.30 support and 51.15 resistance.

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