Crude Oil analysis – 12 Dec 2019


This post is also available in: فارسی (Persian)


By: Ahura Chalki

Oil Market and star wars!

The US inventories against OPEC, and the US economy, against China, all matters for WTI price in the market. The OPEC’s biggest fear of decreasing the supply was to be replaced by US Oil, which is not that fare than fact. After the new cut plan, provided by the OPEC+ members (500K b/d), the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories confirmed the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms, rose by 0.822M, comparing the -2.763M of expectation. Yesterday’s FED decision and Powell’s comment sent the DXY much deeper than expected. The weaker dollar helped the WTI to get back to the same level, before the EIA report. Eyes turned to the Trade negotiations and scheduled tariffs. Next delay in the tariffs will help the bulls, while implementation, will send the Oil price, much deeper.

Technical analysis:

In both H1 and H4 charts, WTI has side movement. Technical indicators cannot confirm bulls or bears. Key levels come into action. Trading with Resistance and Support levels and keeping in mind the Key levels, is much effective for now. $58.60 is still Key level which trading above this level, can confirm the bulls, especially if the market can close above this level by end of the day, however in the larger charts, $58.00 is key to support the bulls while breaching the $57.70 and confirmation with $57.30, the next key support, will bring the bears, back into game.

Pivot point: 58.59

Resistance levels: 59.23 / 59.70

Support levels: 58.12 / 57.48

Today, the expected trading range is between 57.98 support and 59.88 resistance.

Risk Warning: Trading-Leveraged Products such as Forex and Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investment objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.


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