Caution ahead of Claims, OPEC+ & Powell

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Daily News – 9 April 2020

By: Andria Pichidi

Stock markets traded mixed with Japanese stocks down while USA30 and UAS500 each posted better than 3.4% gains. GER30 and UK 100 futures are posting gains of 1.1%. Most other indices managed to move higher in light trade ahead of the Good Friday holiday in many countries.

An uneventful FOMC meeting. The report noted rates will be kept at the 0% bound until the Fed is confident the economy has recovered.

UK, New Zealand, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France extend/considering extending the lockdown. – Australia records the lowest infection rate in three weeks – No new cases in Hubei.

Record numbers of victims in the UK, NY and New Jersey.

USOIL drifted initially on 15M EIA stocks but spiked up over $26.60 from near session lows at $23.80 on reports that Russia will agree to cut production by over 1.5 mln BPD.
USD INDEX hovers around 100 ahead of weekly claims.
JPY – retested 109. Choppy so far between PP: 108.80 and R1: 109.10.
EUR – overall down but intraday indecisive ahead of EU ministers’ meeting. Failed to break 1.0900- PP 10860, S1 1.0805
GBP – UK economy showed a contraction in February – GBPUSD post a double top at 1.2418, before reversing down. PP: 1.2365, S1: 1.2307, R1 1.2438
AUD – spiked to 18-days high, above 68.1% Fib from March down-leg. Back at PP 0.6200.
CAD – remained offered above 1.4000 despite the oil-price strength. Trades above PP 1.4025 and R1 1.4066
GOLD – holds steady around 1650 with tight Spreads: PP 1648, S2 1639 and R1 1653.

TODAY: In Europe, we have German Trade Balance and ECB Monetary policy meeting accounts. In US session US Jobless Claims will be announced alongside the releases of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), Michigan Sentiment and Canadian Employment data. The OPEC+, Powell speech eyed.

Biggest (FX) Mover – AUDUSD (-0.52%) – Reversed 61.8% of March decline while it managed to hold above 0.6200. It holds above Ichimoku cloud in the 1-hour chart, while the momentum indicators are turning lower from yesterday’s rally. The RSI is neutral, Stochastics posted lower lows and MACD lines decline within the negative area. The indicators suggest near term decline/consolidation but positive bias in the medium term. H1 ATR is at 0.0016 and daily ATR is at 0.0132.


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