Brexit anxieties are back!


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Daily Outlook – 19 Nov. 2020

By: Andria Pichidi

Equity markets traded mixed overnight amid worries about virus developments in the U.S. where deaths from Covid 19 have surpassed the 250K mark. Japan confirmed that the Covid-19 alert in Tokyo has been raised to the highest of four levels. The brexit front is coming into focus again after a report in a UK paper suggesting EU leaders are pushing for contingency plans for a no-deal scenario. That these have been ongoing is clear, but there are reported demands now to publicly prepare for such a possibility, which has spooked markets and weighed on the GBP. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.7% and -0.8% respectively, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which are mostly higher.

President Xi, who suggested more international trade agreements are underway while promising a strengthening of domestic demand. Australia meanwhile got a boost from a much better than expected labor market report.

The USA30 led the slide, dropping -1.15%. The USA500 slid -0.76%, with the USA100 falling -0.82%. Treasuries held a small bid early on, though rates edged up into the 20-year auction and sold off further after results showed very poor demand.

USDIndex – appreciated slightly at 92.50

EUR –dip on EU-UK news. Currently 1.1830 – S1: 1.1850, S2 1.1829

JPY – decline continues to 103.85 – PP 103.94, S1: 103.70

GBP – at S2: 1.3222

AUD – dips to 0.7280, PP 0.7300

NZD – at lows 0.6900

CAD – boosted to 1.3100 before turning back to PP 1.3080

BTC – skyrocketed to 18,476

GOLD dips to 5-months lows at 1860 area. Medium

Today’s data calendar is unlikely to rock the boat but includes Eurozone current account data and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey. There are also a number of ECB speakers, including President Lagarde

Biggest (FX) Mover – NZDJPY(-0.37% ) – It dips to 8-day support at 71.45, with parabolic SAR sustained northwards suggesting further decline for the asset. Fast MAs aligned lower, while the asset remains well below PP. Near term, momentum continues to provide a negative intraday outlook in contrast with daily outlook, with MACD and RSI negatively configured. H1 ATR 0.114 Daily ATR 0.785

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