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By: Andria Pichidi
- Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – So far this month China has reported strong trade data with China’s economy showing robust performance. Retail sales climbed 3.3% y/y in September, and this rise is expected to continue in October up to 5% y/y.
- RBA Governor Lowe Speech and RBA Kent (AUD, GMT 08:40 & 22:30)
Tuesday – 17 November 2020
- RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – No surprises from the RBA in their last meeting is expected. The RBA increased stimulus to ensure recovery and cut its key interest rate to 0.1% from 0.25%. It also announced that it will buy AUD 100 bln of government bonds with maturities of around 5-10 years over the next six months. As for negative rates, Governor Lowe said he sees no appetite to go there.
- Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales for October are expected to increase by 0.7% for headline retail sales and 0.8% for the ex-auto figure, following September gains of 1.9% for the headline and 1.5% ex-autos. Amazon Prime Day was pushed back from July to October 13-14, and this should provide a significant boost for October sales.
Wednesday – 18 November 2020
- Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data is anticipated unchanged at 0.5% y/y in October, from a five year low of 0.2% y/y in August. Government measures to boost demand during the pandemic, including a temporary sales tax cut for hospitality firms and subsidies for some restaurant meals had weighed on numbers in August, and the phasing out of the meals scheme saw the CPI rate picking up slightly on a monthly basis. Retail sales are seen at 1.2% y/y in October from 1.1% y/y last month.
- Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The final October CPI headline and core are both expected to show 0.1% October gains, with the score at 0.2%.
- Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation was at 0.5% in September and is expected to stay below the Bank’s target band of 1 to 3% until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices. Measures of core inflation are all below 2%, consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply. Inflation is expected to remain below target throughout the projection horizon.
Thursday – 19 November 2020
- Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Unemployment Rate is projected to have risen at 7.1% in October.
- Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – US initial jobless claims dropped -48k to 709k in the week ended November 7 following the -1k dip to 757k in the last week of October. Though down from their record peak of 6,867k from the March 27 week, claims still remain elevated versus the 201k level at the end of January.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 20.0 in November from a particularly lofty 32.3, versus a 40-year low of -56.6 in April. The Philly Fed index posted a bottom in the last recession of -40.9 in November of 2008. These diffusion indexes should remain elevated as factory activity continues to ramp up, though with backtracking in some regional surveys in some months as big cross-currents in the rebound add noise. Conditions have improved rapidly since Q2, as producers face remarkably lean inventories and rebounding demand in many industries above pre-pandemic levels.
Friday – 20 November 2020
- PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the Yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.
- Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The Retail sales are seen dropping at 0.4% m/m in October from 1.5% y/y last month.
- Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The Retail sales rose 0.4% in August (m/m, sa) after a 1.0% gain in July. Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate is for little change in September retail sales, at 0.9% m/m. Sales have returned to more typical growth rates following the initial pop that followed the reopening of the economy — sales surged 21.2% in May after plunging -24.8% in April and falling -10.0% in March.
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