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By: Stuart Cowell
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI are expected to rise from 55.4 last time to 55.6 this month, still showing weakness but a continued stuttering recovery
Tuesday – 03 November 2020
- The Presidential Election 2020 (USD – All day Event)
- RBA rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The economic impact of the COVID virus has dogged the RBA, like CB’s around the world. Expect no rate change today – but potentially a further indication of one to come (possible before year-end) in a sombre assessment and prospects for Aussie jobs and the economy.
- NZD Employment Change – (NZD, GMT 21:45) – Kiwi Unemployment s expected to rise to 5.4% from 4.0% last quarter, in the first key jobs release for the new parliament. Tourism numbers are starting to recover but this key sector has been significantly damaged.
Wednesday – 04 November 2020
- Services PMI day – China, Euro Area, UK, and Australian data today before the US data later. Services activity continues to move forward and is much more important to this High Income (and middle income) economies in terms of GDP than the symbolic Manufacturing numbers.
- Services PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – last month Services came in at 57.8 and continue to trend and grind higher, however, today the headline is expected to slip to three ticks to 57.5
Thursday – 05 November 2020
- Interest Rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The Bank of England continues to wrestle with the twin peaks of the Covid crisis and Brexit uncertainty, with many expecting the Bank to be forced into negative interest rates from this twin attack. Expect more “we have it in our toolbox but we are not looking to use it” approach. Inflation, the outlook, and growth numbers will be interesting. An extra 100 bln pounds in asset purchases is also expected.
- Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – Where the FED leads others to follow, like the BOE though – although rates are effectively negative, that actual implementation of NIR by the FOMC still appears far over the horizon. Improving economic data the big bounce in Q3 GDP and consumption and housing holding up, the threats of a double-dip decline remain. A change of personnel in the White House, simply adds to the mix.
Friday – 06 November 2020
- Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 850k, following last months 660k, and for Unemployment to move lower again to 7.7% from 7.9% last time. As ever, Earnings will remain the real key data point to watch. This will be either President-elect Biden’s first key data point or a continued move forward for the newly empowered President Trump.
- Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a significant rise in unemployment to 9.7% from 9.0% last month and a collapse from the 378k (3-month peak) for new jobs created last month, to under 200k.
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