USD remains pressured

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Daily Outlook – 27 Oct. 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

USD remains pressured, Equities big declines (Dax & Dow off over 2%), record virus case globally and rising hospitalizations & death toll (over 225k in the US) “Immunity may only last a few months” Imperial College. No progress on the Stimulus package. German Ifo & US New Home sales both missed expectations.UK-EU talks “much work to be done & significant gaps”. USOil recovers from another 3% fall, Gold holds over 1900, Yields slip but hold over 0.80% – VIX at 7 week high. Chinese data relatively robust, HSBC beat estimates

The huge week ahead – (See our Week Ahead for details) – ECB, BOC & BoJ, Plus US GDP and THE Earnings week Microsoft, Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, eBay, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (GOOGLE) & Facebook – (888 US Co’s this week)

USDIndex – could not hold over 93.00. (PP) Trades at 92.89, S1 92.80, R1 93.15

EUR – held over 1.18000 now back to 1.1830. PP 1.1825, r1 1.1840, S1 1.1790 – ECB this week

JPY – capped by 105.00 yesterday 104.75 now – s1 104.65 – PP 104.88, s2 104.40 – BOJ this week

GBP – held over 1.3000, back to PP at 1.3030 now. – R1 1.3065, s1 1.2978. – UK-EU trade talks key driver.

AUD – 0.7100 (s1) to 0.7150 (r1) range tested again yesterday. PP 0.7115 – Victoria (7m) leaves an 112-day lockdown.

NZD – (bid again) back to 0.6685 (PP), capped at – 0.6700 on Friday & yesterday.

CAD – could not hold 1.3200 yesterday. Trades at 1.3180 (PP) now. R1 1.3240, S1 1.3150 – BOC this week

CHF – Rallied to 0.9080 yesterday (Jordan commented on strength of CHF & spike in virus cases) now – 0.9060 (PP)

BTC – Holds 13k today. 13,225 2020 high yesterday. – PP 13,050

GOLD – Holds over $1900 – trades at 1907 (200Ma), PP 1902, S1 1894, r1 1912

USOil – Another BIG down day Monday (-3%) – ($38.27 lows) – weak equities, global demand, and increased supply (Libya) – Now at 38.80 (pp) – r1 39.30, S1 38.15

USA500 – closed down 64pts (-1.86%) at 3400, (Dow lost 650 pts, – 2.3%) – Futs. now at 3411. 50-day MA 3412 – BIG week for Earnings with 888 US companies and many in Europe reporting.

Today – US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Haldane, ECB’s Centeno, Chinese Communist Party Key Meeting (26th – 29th), Earnings: BP, Novartis, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Merck, 3M, Eli Lilly

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.20%) –. Rallied from S1 opening lows at 0.6671 to test R1 at 0.6698, back to PP now 0.6685. Fast MA’s turned lower, RSI 49 & neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and above 0 line from earlier. Stochastics moving lower and out of OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0010 Daily ATR 0.0053.


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