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Daily Outlook – 15 Oct. 2020
By: Stuart Cowell
Equities slipped again, COVID cases making new records in Europe and “far apart” comments from Mnuchin re the stimulus deal weighs, USD up on safe-haven bid, AUD down on talk of rate cut n bond buying. GBP holds after yesterday’s rally, Today is NOT deadline day for the EU_UK trade deal, Johnson blinked first. GS (big beat) & BoA Earnings better than expected, Wells Fargo missed significantly. Gold holds $1900, USOil up to $41.00. Betfair has Biden at 74% chance and Trump at 33% chance. (=107 ???). TRUMP on a major offensive in key swing states as he pulls up to 47/49 in Florida.
USDIndex – under 93.50, major support at 93.00 – PP now 93.35 – 200MA 93.50
EUR – back under 1.1750. Trades at 1.1745 (PP) now – S1 1.1725, R1 1.1775
JPY – under 105.50 again.; trades at 105.30 (PP), up from 105.30 earlier
GBP – Holds at 1.3000, 1.3070 high yesterday. – PP 1.2978, S1 1.2898, R1 1.3100
AUD – weakest today – on comments from Lowe down to 0.7115. – S2 0.7130, S3 0.7105
NZD – holds over 0.6600 – pivots below 0.6650 –
CAD – off 1.3100 support to 1.3150 CHF – off 0.9100 support to and capped at 0.9150
BTC – pivots around 11,400 now
GOLD – up from 1880 lows yesterday to regain 1900 now.
USOil – Up to $41.00 (over 2% gain) private us inventories fell last week. Official data later today.
USA500 – closed -23 (-0.66%) at 3488, (Wells -6%, BoA -5%) – Futs. now at 3471. 50-day MA 3397
Today – US Import/Export Prices, Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, European Council Summit, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Kaplan, Kashkari & Quarles, BoE’s Cunliffe. Earnings – Morgan Stanley
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.27%) – Moved below 200MA yesterday, and 20MA into close. Lowe’s comments weighed heading to S£ and 0.7100?. Fast MA’s still aligned lower, RSI 27 and OS, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and well below 0-line. Stochastics in OS zone over 16 hrs. H1 ATR 0.0013 Daily ATR 0.0060.
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