USD continues to drift lower

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Daily Outlook – 30 Sep 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

USD continues to drift lower; Equities slip too. Presidential debate – “fails to move investors, tumultuous debate” RTS, “ill-mannered” FT, “chaotic, bitter debate” BBC. Pelosi’s 2.2trl stimulus Bill, Republicans to go to 1.5 trl? China PMI data are stronger than expected, AUD Housing data much weaker. A raft of FED speak and BOE’s Bailey – no new news or surprises. Disney announced 28,000 job cuts globally. Oil fell over 3% (Conflict in the Caucuses and spike in COVID cases in New York). Gold touched $1900. End of the month & Quarter volatility possible.

USDIndex – slipped again from Sept high set on Friday (94.77) – under 94.00 (pp) – s1 93.70, r1 94.20

EUR – over 1.1700, to 1.1730. PP & 200MA at 1.1720, r1 1.1770, S1 1.1685

JPY – Rallied to 105.75 before returning to 105.50 again. PP now 105.60; S1 105.42 & R1 105.80

GBP – Tested 1.2900 again yesterday, but back to 1.2930 now. PP at 1.2865. R1 1.2900, S1 & 200MA 1.2820.

AUD – over 0.7100 and up to 0.7150, before falling on building data. Holds PP at 0.7110, S1 0.7085, r1 0.7155

NZD – brief breach of 0.6600 earlier. Back to pp now at 0.6580, R1 0.6615, S1 0.6560

CAD – over 1.3400 again. Trades at R1 1.3420, S1 1.3350, PP 1.3385.

CHF – Down under 0.9200 earlier. Back to PP & 200MA at 0.9210 – s1 0.9170, R1 0.9230

BTC – Down to S1 at 10,700 today

GOLD – tested up to $1900 into close last night. Back to $1885. – PP 1890, S1 1881 & R1 1905.

USOil – Plunged over 3% ($2+) from $40.75 to $38.40, on Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict, and a rise in COVID cases in New York). Back to $38.90 now. PP 39.40 – S1 38.00

USA500 – closed -16 at 3335, 20MA crossed below 50MA (3360). – FUTS at 3305

Today –, UK GDP, German jobs report, US ADP, USD GDP (F), Chicago PMI, DoEs, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, BoE’s Haldane, Fed’s Kashkari, Kaplan,

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.47%) – Rally from Fridays test of 200MA at 74.00 topped at 75.50. Breached 20, 50 & 200MA earlier and 75.00. Fast MA’s still aligned lower, RSI 47 & still falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but significantly over 0 line. Stochastics into OS zone. H1 ATR 0.1460, Daily ATR 0.7200


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