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By: Andria Pichidi
- RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to how further the RBA members are prepared to go in order to support the economy. The bank in its last meeting left rates on hold, and increased the size of the Term Funding Facility, and make the facility available for longer. RBA Governor Lowe said “the board is committed to doing what it can to support jobs, incomes, and businesses in Australia”.”Low for longer”, with the willingness to do more if necessary, which is pretty much the stance at most major central banks as the world economy deals with Covid-19.
- Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonuses for July are expected to decline to -0.6% (3Mo/Yr). The ILO unemployment rate is seen unchanged.
- Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for September is expected to have slightly declined, after spiking to 64 in August. This will be important for retail to actually recover as consumers need to be confident enough to go out and spend again.
Wednesday – 16 September 2020
- Consumer Price Index and Core (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The UK CPI inflation is anticipated to be underwhelmed as Brexit jitters. August CPI is anticipated higher at 1.3% y/y from 1% y/y, while the core is anticipated lower at 1.4%y/y from 1.8% y/y.
- Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – August Retail sales is anticipated to increase at 0.9% for headline and 1.0% for the ex-auto figure, following July gains of 1.2% for the headline and 1.9% ex-autos.
- Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The August BOC CPI is expected to continue adding to the backing for steady BoC policy this year, as the Fed and ECB also remained in wait and see stance. CPI has been forecasted to grow to a 0.9% y/y pace in August, above the 0.7% last month.
- Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) – The FOMC announced a shift in its monetary policy strategy, moving to an average inflation target. Though the outcome was widely expected, the timing surprised. Markets widely assumed it would be outlined at the September FOMC, along with the SEP. Under this strategy, the Fed will let the economy run hotter and will let the inflation rate rise “moderately” over 2% in order to make up for prior undershoots of that level. There was no indication of a time frame. Hence this meeting will provide further guidance and timeframe. Lastly as the government looks unlikely to deliver more stimulus, the Fed is expected to be all in.
Thursday – 17 September 2020
- Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 03:00 – 06:00) – The focus is on Monday’s leadership election of the ruling LDP party, which will produce the new prime minister after Abe stepped down. Yoshihide Suga is expected to win. No major changes to prevailing policies would be expected should he indeed be confirmed as the new PM. He is a supporter of ‘Abenomics’, Large fiscal stimulus is already in the works, and the close relationship between government and the BoJ would be maintained.
- Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final reading of AUgust inflation is expected to have held steady at -0.4% m/m and core at -0.5% m/m.
- Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement, and MPC Voting (GBP, GMT 11:00) –Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions while no change to the MPC voting is expected. BoE policymakers have been subtly changing their tune to a more circumspect one. MPC member Vlieghe, for instance, said that there is a “material risk” that it could take several years before the economy to return to full capacity.
- Building Permits & Housing Starts (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slip to a 1.440 mln pace in August, after climbing to a 1.496 mln pace in July from 1.220 mln in June, versus a 14-year high of 1.617 mln in January. Permits are expected to climb to 1.530 mln in August, after rising to 1.483 mln in July. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply in Q3, though the dramatic Q2 climb in the MBA purchase index has been followed by more stable Q3 readings around lofty levels.
- Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) –The Philly Fed index is seen rising to 19.0 in September from 17.2, after the big jump to 27.5 by June from a 40-year low of -56.6 in April. The Philly Fed index posted a bottom in the last recession of -40.9 in November of 2008. These diffusion indexes should remain elevated as factory activity continues to ramp up, though with backtracking in some states from restrictions on retail activity. Conditions are improving through Q3, as producers face lean inventory levels.
Friday – 18 September 2020
- Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – – UK retail sales for August expected to give a further glimpse into Covid-19 damage, with a very pessimistic outcome as forecasts sustain a contraction picture.
- Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – July Retail sales are anticipated to increase at 24.5% for headline and 9.4% for the ex-auto figure.
- Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary Michigan sentiment report should climb to 75.0 from 74.1 in August
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