Dollar Holds on to Recovery

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Daily Outlook – 3 Sep 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

Dollar holds on to recovery, DXY targets 93.00; EUR, AUD & GBP pressured. Another record close for stocks (but Apple down 2% & Tesla off 6%) Central Banks remain in dovish mode and vaccine hopes are high. US ADP was a significant miss yesterday – Initial Claims today (back under 1.0 million?) and NFP tomorrow (1.4 million?) come with added spice. Oil sank 2% on inventory data and Gold fell as USD & sentiment improved.

USDIndex – recovered from 91.70 multi-year lows Monday to test 93.00 (r1) this morning. PP 92.55, r2 93.20

EUR – rapid reversal from 1.2011 highs Monday continues. Trades at 1.1800 (S1). S2 1.1760, PP& 200hr MA 1.1860

JPY – holds over 106.00 – trades at 106.25 now – PP 106.10, R1 106.40

GBP – 1.3480 highs Monday – back to 1.3300 (S1) now. V. dovish BOE team yesterday – S2 1.3220, PP 1.3350

AUD – down to test 0.7300 this morning – S1 0.7285, PP 0.7335

NZD – still holds over 0.6700 at 0.6725. PP 0.6765 , S1 0.6735

CAD – back to 1.3080 this morning – (PP sits at 1.3070, R1 1.3086, R2 1.3110.

CHF – at R1 again this morning 0.9130, up from under 0.9000 on Monday. PP 0.9108, r2 0.9160

BTC – down to test under PP to 11,200 this morning. S1

GOLD – Down under 200hr MA yesterday and testing $1930 now. – PP 1950, s2 1908

USOil – Fell 2% yesterday – now at $41.35 (S1) – S2 41.00

USA500 – closed +54 at 3580– another all-time high – FUTS at 3573 – Feb 19 all-time high 3386 now history.

Today – Swiss CPI, EZ, UK, and US Final Services and Composite PMIs; US Initial and Continued Jobless Claims, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Schnabel, Fed’s Evans

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (+0.56%) –declined from the rejection of 1.200 Monday – significantly now 1.1800. Faster MA’s aligned lower. RSI (25 and OS but still falling). MACD Histogram and Signal line both moving lower and under 0-line since open yesterday. Stoch in OS zone, – H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0054.


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