The dollar recovered from record lows

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Daily Outlook – 2 Sep 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

The dollar recovered from record lows following good Manu.PMI’s. AUD GDP (-7.0% 2Q) worse than expected and confirms AUS in recession for the first time in close to 30 years. Germain retail sales are worse than expected. Equities at record highs again – divergence in Nasdaq appearing – Zoom up over 40%, Walmart up over 6% & Apple up 4%. Yields back down (10yr back under 0.70%) Gold slips – Oil holds. NZD on the bid this morning.

USDIndex – recovered from 91.70 multi-year lows. – Trades at 92.40, PP 92.15, R1 92.55

EUR – rapid reversal from 1.2011 highs. Trades at 1.1900. S1 1.1870, PP 1.1944

JPY – tested 105.50 yesterday – now recovered 106.00 – PP 105.90, R1 106.20

GBP – 1.3480 highs yesterday – back to 1.3365 now – S1 1.3335, PP 1.3405

AUD – down from 0.7400 trades at S1 0.7350 – S2 0.7430, PP 0.7380

NZD – holds significantly over 0.6700. Now– R1 0.6775. R2 0.6780, PP 0.6740

CAD – tested below 1.3000 yesterday now. – at 1.3070 (PP), S1 1.3020, R1 1.3100

CHF – tested under 0.9000 yesterday now at 0.9112, PP 0.9065, r1 0.9130

BTC – – holds at 11,750. S1 11,600, PP 11,850

GOLD – Tested down to S1 and 200hr MA earlier at $1957. – PP 1975

USOil – Holds back over $43.00 (PP). Dipped to 42.75 yesterday – – now at t $43.15 – R1 43.20, S1 42.50

USA500 – closed +26 at 3526– an all-time high – FUTS at 3542

Today – US ADP Employment, Factory Orders, Oil Inventories plus BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Vlieghe, Broadbent, Haldane, Fed’s Williams, Mester

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.56%) –rallied from the break of 20 MA and 0.6100 yesterday, over 20 MA Capped at 0.6180 at R1 this morning – Faster MA’s aligned higher. RSI (68 & showing signs of weakness). MACD Histogram and Signal line both moving higher and over 0-line since Aug 26. Stoch in OB zone, – H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0054.


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