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Daily Outlook – 17 August 2020
By: Stuart Cowell
USD remains pressured. (CFTC data Friday showed largest EUR position long positions ever and Hedge funds short USD overall for the first time since May 2018). Bond yields soared last week as supply rose sharply and prices fell. Equities closed flat with weak data on Friday from JPY, EZ & US Retail Sales. US-China trade talks were postponed “indefinitely”, TRUMP says Alibaba & other Chinese tech companies cud come under investigation. JPY (& Malaysia) posted the worst GDP data ever, (JPY econ shrank by -27.8% YoY and -7.8% (QoQ). This week it’s the FED & RBA minutes, PMI, CPI & GDP data along with Walmart & Home Depot Earnings and the Democratic Convention kicks off.
USD index – fell for the 8th consecutive week last week – closed 93.05. Down today 92.90 (S1). PP 93.12, S2 92.73
EUR – Friday 5th day of gains – trades at 1.1886 (R1), PP 1.1820, R2 1.1892
JPY – Held 106.50 on close. Trades at S1 106.55 now. PP 106.80, S2 106.40 200hr MA 106.40
GBP – 1.3085 (PP) close Friday. Now at 1.3104. R1 1.3150, S1 1.3040
AUD – today’s best performer – 0.7195 (R3) high today – back to R2 0.7180 now. – 0.7200 key resistance.
NZD – still weakest currency – down to pp at 0.6540 now– S1 0.6520, S2 0.6510.
CAD – recovered to 1.3250 on Friday’s close. Now 1.3245 – PP 1.3235, S1 1.3214, R1 1.3260
CHF – closed down on Friday (0.9090) (10th consecutive week & 12 out of last 13) – now 0.9080 (S2), S1 0.9076.
BTC – – holds key Friday pivot at 11,750 again
GOLD – 1st losing week in 10 on Friday close 1945. Pivots at that level now. R1 & 200hr MA 1965, S1 1930
USOil – up to $42.40 (R1) now. Traded down to 41.55 (S1) Friday before closing at 42.20. R2 today at 42.85, PP 42.00.
USA500 – closed flat Friday at 3373 (recovering 10pts in final 30 mins) – FUTS at 3375 – Feb 19 all-time high 3386
Today – Empire State Manu. US Democratic National Convention starts & Fed’s Bostic
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.24%) – Rallied from 0.7140-50 zone Friday over 20, 50 &200Hr MA. The faster MA’s aligned higher already rallied over R3, (0.7195). RSI (57 & rising). MACD Histogram and Signal line both moving higher and over 0 line from Friday’s move. Stoch falling but not OS, – H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0064.
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