USD higher again

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Daily Outlook – 11 Aug 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

USD higher again (into 4th day of gains) Equities fell (and fall in Asia) as Bonds rose and Commodities collapsed. Lack of progress on stimulus talks the reason. RBNZ talked of as much as NZ$100 billion extra QE & extending it into 2022 AND neg. rates are in ‘active preparation’. NZD down over 0.5%. AUD tracks lower on RBNZ fallout record & COVID deaths. UK GDP confirms first recession in 11 years (+8.7% MoM & -20.4% QoQ). The Russians announced Sputnik V as a vaccine & Kamala Harris named as Biden’s running mate.

USD index – rallied to new 4-day high 93.85 (R1) now – PP 93.50 R2 94.10
EUR – down under 1.1720 (yesterdays low) – – trades at 1.1718, S1 at 1.1705, PP 1.1750
JPY – 106.75 now. Over yesterday’s 106.70 high – R1 106.65 & R2 106.88. PP 106.30
GBP – tested 1.3025 now (ahead of GDP) (below low of yesterday) S2 1.3012, S3 1.2973. PP 1.3085
AUD – 0.7115 (S2) now – (7-day lows), S3 0.7066, PP 0.7150,
NZD down following RBNZ at 15-day lows 0.6535 (S2)
CAD – up from 1.3275 lows yesterday. Trades at R1 & 200Hr MA – 1.3348, PP 1.3308, R2 1.3400
CHF – seven day high 0.9195 (r1) now. R2 at 0.9223, PP 0.9150
BTC – back down to test 11,000 earlier. Now at S1 11,250. S2 10,995, PP 11,570

GOLD – Lost $117 yesterday. (2028-1912) & tested in 1900. – Trades at 1880, S1 -1864, S2 -1820. PP 1950
USOil – fell to $41.45 on open– Now up to S1 at 41.85 (some inventories reported lower) PP 42.30, S2 & 200hr MA 41.40

USA500 – closed down 27pts (-0.80%) at 3333 – FUTS at 3350 – Feb 19 all-time high 3386

Today – US CPI, Fed’s Rosengren, Kaplan, Daly, & BIG 10yr Bond issue from the US. Plus weekly Oil Inventories

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.42%) – Dovish RBNZ – Breached 20 & 50 MA yesterday. The faster MA’s aligned higher already hit R1. RSI (63 & rising). MACD Histogram and Signal line both moving higher and over 0-line from yesterday’s move. Stochastic moving higher again – H1 ATR 0.0032, Daily ATR 0.0158.


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