USD firmed one-month lows

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Daily Outlook – 16 July 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

USD firmed overnight from one-month lows, Strong set of data (GDP (+3.2% Q2, Unemployment (5.7%) and Investment) from China & record recovery in AUD jobs numbers adds to vaccine and Goldman Sachs induced lift in sentiment. Equities closed up 1%, Asian markets flat. Europe down 1%. UK Job numbers also better than expected, Unemployment – unchanged 3.9%, claims fell but earnings were v. weak. UK Furlough scheme having an impact. TRUMP sacks campaign manager (Biden ahead in 6 key swing states)

USD Index – up from S1 at 95.75 yesterday – trades at 96.06 now, PP at 95.95, S1 95.70
EUR – down from 1.1450 from highs, holds 1.1400. PP at 1.1417, R1 1.1455, S1 1.1385
JPY – under 107.00 – now at 106.90 (PP) from 106.65 lows yesterday. R1 107.14, S1 106.50
GBP – down from 1.2640 highs yesterday to 1.2545 now. PP 1.2600, S1 1.2565, s2 1.2508,
AUD – down from 0.7000 Trades at 0.6990, S1 0.6985, PP 0.7008, R1 0.7047
CAD – back under 1.3600 to test 1.3500 now. PP 1.3570, S1 1.3525, s2 1.3490 – OPEC talk increasing production (tapering cuts) from August.
CHF – from lows at 0.9370 yesterday to highs at 0.9460 now. PP 0.9409, R1 0.9448, R2 0.9470
BTC – – rotates at 9200, PP 9175, S1 at 9,130, R1 9300

GOLD – 1815 – 1084 yesterday – now trades at 1805 – PP 1808, s11803
USOil – spiked over $41.00 – yesterday after a big drop in private inventories, news of OPEC tapering cuts pulled it down to 40.80 – R1 41.60, S1 40.25

USA500 – closed at 3226 +29pts & +0.9% -. FUTS down at 3210 – above key 3200-level.

Today – US Initial/Continued Jobless Claims, Retail Sales & Philadelphia Fed, ECB Rate Decision & Press Conference, BoE’s Bailey & Haldane, Fed’s Williams & Evans. Earnings from – Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, Netflix

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.40%) – rally to 1.2640 yesterday, lower form 18:00 yesterday, breaching 20 MA & under 1.2600, under 200MA earlier. Faster MA’s aligned lower; RSI (34) moving lower. MACD Histogram and Signal line both moving lower & under 0 from earlier too. Stochs OS zone – H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0098.


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