Gold and different scenarios!

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Bulls and Bears Conflict!

By: Ahura Chalki

Gold is trading stable above $1800, for almost a week, with testing 9-year high above $1813, however, the yellow metal could not test it again, while at the market had enough encouragement to trade stable above Psychological level of $1800.

Bullish: Bulls of the market need a real and mean full reason to save their kingdom. Yesterday, while the market was trying to make some correction, return from the pivot point of $1803 happened after a new wave of gold purchases by banks, but the market already was ready also for holding the position as US-China tensions over Hong Kong and the South China Sea. Fundamentally, it is getting harder to convince new investors to enter the market at this level, so only real tensions can change the investor’s mind at the moment. On the other hand, earning reports for the second-quarter also are in the spotlight, and just in case if the companies miss the expectation by big numbers can help the Bulls.

Bearish: Fundamentally Bearish looks more likely. In past days, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) Vaccine kept the market’s hope alive while Russia also successfully completed early-stage trials of a COVID-19 vaccine. The same news from China, the UK, and some other countries abut vaccines help the market to be more positive and confident about their investments. About the US-China tension also at the moment, it looks so unlikely that both sides decide to go further, especially at the current financial crises and 4 months before the election in the States.

On the other hand, the economic calendar also had lot to say. Most of the published data especially from China, EU, and the US such as CPI, PPI, Industrial, and Manufacturing productions were better than expectations, which is in the favor of gold bears.

Technical overview – H4 Chart.

Gold is trading above both EMA 20 & 50, since June 10. These levels at the moment sitting at $1807 and $1799. Technically yellow metal must breach first these levels and could close the daily Candle under $1799 to be able to confirm more correction, otherwise, the more it trades above $1800, more confirmations will be for bulls to print a new record high.

Pivot point: 1809.20

Resistance levels: 1816.00 / 1821.52

Support levels: 1803.75 / 1796.88

Today, the expected trading range is between 1796.88 support and 1816.00 resistance.


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