US Inventories and Oil Market

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Sharp Decline in the private section!

By: Ahura Chalki

WTI recovered yesterday’s loss after Wall Street’s recovery from first hours red trading zone, however, API (American Petroleum Institute) report was the reason for holding the current level, above $40, when published data confirmed the sharp decline of 8.322M barrels in weekly inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks.

While the market is waiting for today’s EIA report that yesterday OPEC Monthly Report published which was a bit more positive than the previous month, where it was raising the demand outlook for both WTI and Gas condensate for 2020 and 21.

Now investors and market participant must be patiently looking at US-China tensions as well as EIA report, where it is expecting to have another decline of 2M barrels in the inventory level of last week.

Contradictory factors seem to balance the market. On one hand Inventory levels must push the market higher, while on the other hand, fear of tensions and raising numbers of new infected of the virus, weighing on price.

Technical overview – H1 chart

Technically piece capped by $39 and $40.50 and in order to have a new trend, first of all, we need to see the prices above or under these levels. RSI at 60 and OBV trend line, both are flat, while EMA crossing strategy remains more bullish.

Pivot point: 40.05

Resistance levels: 41.05 / 41.50

Support levels: 39.60 / 38.60

Today, the expected trading range is between 38.60 support and 41.50 resistance.


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